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Read previewFitch Ratings has cut its outlook for China, adding to the gloom surrounding the world's second-largest economy. It cut its outlook from "stable" to "negative," but maintained its overall rating at "A+." The move comes after Moody's Investor Services, another major credit-rating agency, also downgraded its outlook for China to "negative" in December. As a result Fitch expects economic growth to fall to 4.5% for 2024. The ratings agency said policymakers will probably have no choice but to borrow to address its economic woes.
Persons: , Fitch, Fitch's Organizations: Service, Business, Moody's Investor Services, Analysts, St Louis Federal Reserve, CSI Locations: China, Beijing
Loneliness and happiness are often related, and people of all ages have been battling those issues for years. The World Happiness Report, released in March, delved further into how people of all generations are experiencing loneliness and happiness globally. And when it comes to loneliness in the US, the younger generations were hit the hardest. This is despite the fact that actual social connections are much more frequent for Millennials than Boomers, and about as frequent as for Generation X." AdvertisementThe focus on meaningful connections might just be what splits older generations from younger generations when it comes to happiness.
Persons: , Millennials, Preeti Malani, Malani, Zers, it's, Susan Skinner, Louis, That's, Xers, Maria Maki, Maki Organizations: Service, Business, Boomers, University of Michigan, Louis Federal, Equity Locations: North America
In particular, the researchers looked at a group dubbed "disconnected youth," who aren't working and are also not in school. As of 2022, disconnected youth comprised 13% of this age group; that share has been rising overall since 1998, according to calculations from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. AdvertisementYounger Americans are facing stagnant incomesThe Dallas Fed found that, even after a post-pandemic dip, the rate of disconnected youth has increased since the end of the 1990s. AdvertisementAnd the number of young adults with no income has been on the rise; in 1990, around one in five young adults said they had no wage or salary income. Are you or were you a "disconnected youth," or supporting one?
Persons: , Louis, Gen, Zers, Louis Fed's, Louis Fed, William M, Rodgers III, Rodgers Organizations: Service, Louis Federal Reserve's Institute for Economic Equity, Business, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Dallas Fed, Federal Reserve's Survey, Consumer, Louis Fed, National Health, Blacks, Louis, Louis Fed's Institute for Economic Equity
The last one was during the Great Recession, brought about by the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. The extended slump in bank lending comes as many Wall Street experts continue to project a pessimistic outlook for the economy, despite the surprisingly upbeat trend seen in 2023. Recession warningsThe US economy defied forecasters' gloomy predictions by dodging a recession last year, with strong consumer spending helping to prop up growth. AdvertisementBut not everyone on Wall Street is so cheerful. It might be a mild recession or a heavy recession," he added, noting it's possible that the downturn bites in 2024.
Persons: , Jeffrey Gundlach, Henry Kravis, David Rosenberg, Steve Hanke, Gary Shilling, Continentale, Janet Yellen, haven't, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Hanke, Rosenberg, it'd Organizations: Service, Business, Governors, Federal, Wall, Louis Federal Reserve, Bank, Federal Reserve, Philadelphia Fed, JPMorgan, Fox Business Locations: Bank, Ukraine, Gaza
[1/3] An employee hiring sign is seen in a window of a business in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., April 7, 2023. So far, he said at a Boston Fed labor market conference earlier this month, measures like the employment-to-population ratio largely have not behaved differently for key racial groups, for women versus men, or among those with different education levels. Research has since tended to suggest that there may be untapped pools of labor that only become available when the job market is tight - an argument for keeping monetary policy looser than not. The labor market recovery so far has been "remarkably equitable," she said. Pandemic-era programs threw a safety net under many families, and the tight job market that has since developed helped many get a foothold, Rouse said.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, William M, Rodgers III, Rodgers, Torsten Slok, Jerome Powell, quartile, Chris Wheat, Cecilia Rouse, Joe Biden, Rouse, what's, we're, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Institute for Economic Equity, St, Louis Federal Reserve, Boston Fed, Blacks, Apollo Global Management, JPMorgan Chase Institute, Workers, Reuters Graphics, of Economic Advisers, Brookings Institution, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, joblessness
NEW YORK, Nov 22 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Hey, White House. The release noted that lower inflation was among the things that Americans should be thankful for. Gasoline prices, for example, are down a quarter from their high in June 2022, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The price of the average Thanksgiving meal has dropped from last year, too. Meantime food prices in the average U.S. city are up a fifth since December 2020, according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve.
Persons: they’ll, paychecks, Joe Biden, Biden, , he’s, Jonathan Guilford, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: Reuters, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Louis Federal Reserve, American Farm Bureau Federation, Associated Press, NORC, for Public Affairs Research, White, Thomson Locations: U.S
Consumers See Worsening Economy, Higher Inflation
  + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Tim Smart | Nov. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +4 min
Consumers continued to sour on the economic outlook in November while also growing more pessimistic about future inflation, according to the first estimate from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. The index of consumer sentiment fell 5% to a reading of 60.4, down from 63.8 in October. “Ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine weighed on many consumers as well.”“Overall, lower-income consumers and younger consumers exhibited the strongest declines in sentiment,” Hsu added. Various surveys measuring the minds of consumers have found them to be worried about inflation and the economy in general. “Consumer sentiment continues to trend downward at a moderate pace as consumers attempt to juggle inflation and higher interest rates,” said Damian McIntyre, Portfolio manager and head of multi asset solutions at Federated Hermes.
Persons: , Joanne Hsu, ” Hsu, Joe Biden, Damian McIntyre, Gregory Daco, ” Daco, Goldman Sachs Organizations: University of Michigan, , Federated Hermes, Federal Reserve, Index, Louis Federal Reserve Bank Locations: Gaza, Ukraine, Kentucky, Ohio
Many people subsequently turned to remote work, and the workforce recovered but only to be plunged into three years of an incredibly tight labor market. Today, the unemployment rate is at 3.9% following an increase in October from the prior’s month’s 3.8% level, and by most measures the labor market is considered very strong. “It does seem like the labor market is getting a little more balanced,” says Gene Tannuzzo, global head of fixed income at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. The overwhelmingly takeaway is that the labor market has defied most predictions and shown a level of resiliency and adaptability that has surprised many observers. This was the “excess retirements” who were causing the labor market to be exceptionally tight.
Persons: Gene Tannuzzo, , , Bill Armstrong, “ We've, Guy Berger, James Neave, ” Neave, , Berger, ’ Berger, Sarah House, it’s, women’s Organizations: Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Safeguard Global, Technology, LinkedIn, Walmart, General Motors, Google, Wells, Louis Federal Reserve Bank, & $ Locations: Minnesota
WASHINGTON, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Third quarter U.S. economic growth at an annualized 4.9% rate was a "blowout" performance that warrants watching as the U.S. Federal Reserve considers its next policy moves, Fed Gov. Christopher Waller said on Tuesday. "This was an outstanding quarter...this big blowout number," Waller told an economic data seminar at the St. Louis Federal Reserve. While his remarks did not include a policy recommendation, he noted that in looking at the components of U.S. output, "everything was booming. So this is something we are keeping a very close eye on when we think about policy going forward."
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Howard Schneider Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, St, Louis Federal Reserve, Thomson
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is now only 12 months away, with the primary season set to begin Jan. 15. While every election year brings with it a unique mix of political and macroeconomic conditions, Goldman Sachs' portfolio strategy research team says equity returns tend to be weaker than average in the 12 months leading up to a presidential election. Since 1984, the average S & P 500 return on election years is only 4%, according to Goldman. When looking more broadly from 1932, the S & P 500 has averaged returns of 7% during an election year and 9% outside of election years. "Post-election returns have typically been stronger when the election resulted in a divided government than a unified government, especially in the case of a wave election," Kostin said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Louis, David Kostin, Kostin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Louis Federal, Tech
Bankman-Fried circus will be a singular clown show
  + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Anita Ramaswamy | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
NEW YORK, Oct 4 (Reuters Breakingviews) - All eyes are on Sam Bankman-Fried as the cryptocurrency founder’s criminal trial gets underway this week. The high-profile case bears similarities to past scandals such as Enron and Countrywide Financial, when regulation followed investigations. Lawmakers hauled Wall Street analysts up to Capitol Hill to grill them about their “buy” ratings. Importantly, legislators passed the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, forcing banks to hold more capital, among other stipulations. It also is less prevalent – less than 20% of Americans have invested in crypto, according to the Pew Research Center.
Persons: Sam Bankman, FTX’s, Ken Lay, Arthur Andersen, Dodd, Frank Wall, Tom Brady, Bill Clinton, Fried, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam Organizations: Reuters, Enron, Countrywide Financial, Countrywide, Bank of America, Lawmakers, Sarbanes, Oxley, Frank Wall Street Reform, Consumer, The Securities, Exchange Commission, Pew Research Center, Louis Federal Reserve, Southern, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New
Morning Bid: Spiky quarter ends in uneasy market calm
  + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. At 4.53% on Friday, the 10-year benchmark was some 15 basis points off Thursday's peak and two-year yields fell back to their lowest since Sept. 18. Some optimism from Beijing about a possible year-end summit between President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden helped. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Friday:* US August PCE inflation gauge, personal income and spending. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Thursday's, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, Lifeng, Federal Reserve's, Jerome Powell, Thomas Barkin, it's, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, John Williams, Toby Chopra Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Organization of, Petroleum, Wall Street Journal, Federal, Fed, Richmond Fed, Nike, HK, Reuters, Mercedes, Benz, Chicago, University of, Louis Federal Reserve, New York Fed, U.S, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Beijing, China, Washington, Hong Kong, Nio
US consumer confidence fell to a four-month low in September, the Conference Board said Tuesday. That's a sign Americans are feeling worse about the economy. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The US consumer confidence index, which measures how people are feeling about their own financial health and spending power, slipped to a four-month low in September, the Conference Board said Tuesday. Confidence slipped across every age group, according to the Conference Board, with the drop most pronounced among Americans earning upwards of $50,000 a year.
Persons: That's, , , they'll, Goldman Sachs, there's Organizations: Conference, Service, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Conference Board, St Louis Federal Reserve
The likelihood that inflation numbers are going to remain stubbornly high for a while could mean more interest rate increases, former St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said Thursday. In a CNBC interview, the the current dean of the Mitchell E. Daniels Jr. School of Business at Purdue University raised the prospect of more policy tightening as core inflation is stuck around 4%. "That's raising the risk that the Fed will have to follow through on its promise rate increase sometime in the next couple of meetings, and there's some risk that they'd have to go a little bit higher even from there," Bullard told CNBC's Steve Liesman. Inflation numbers "have got to come down into the 3% range, and eventually the 2% range, and if that is not happening and they hang up too high, the Fed may have to do more," he said.
Persons: James Bullard, Mitchell, Daniels, Bullard, CNBC's Steve Liesman, — Jeff Cox Organizations: Louis Federal Reserve, CNBC, School of Business, Purdue University Locations: St
Thanks to skyrocketing housing prices, homeowners are now sitting on nearly $30 trillion in home equity, according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve — just shy of the 2022 peak. How to tap your home for cashFactor in the terms, rates and risksWhen it comes to borrowing against your home, the terms can vary greatly, according to a LendingTree report that analyzed more than 580,000 home equity loan offers across the country. The average home equity loan amount offered to homeowners is $104,102, LendingTree found. Access to HELOCs has improved, although the most preferable terms still go to borrowers with higher credit scores and lower debt-to-income ratios. "Though a home equity loan can be a good way to pay for big expenses, like major renovations, or to consolidate high-interest debt, getting one isn't without drawback," added Jacob Channel, LendingTree's senior economist.
Persons: Louis Federal Reserve —, LendingTree, Nicole Bachaud, Jacob, LendingTree's Organizations: Louis Federal Reserve Locations: Homes, Iowa, Maryland
Homeowners are tapping into home equity to get cash
  + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
That means homeowners are now collectively sitting on nearly $30 trillion in home equity, according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve. Other reasons that borrowers gave for taking out a HELOC or home equity loan included debt consolidation and emergency cash management. Hidden source of valueA homeowner’s equity in their home can be a tremendous source of wealth. A homeowner’s equity will fluctuate over time as they make payments on their mortgage and real estate market dynamics impact the current value of the home. Mortgage balances stay high because of home equity loansNationally, mortgage balances remain near record highs as some people turn to home equity loans, rather than HELOCs, according to a quarterly report from TransUnion.
Persons: , Marina Walsh, ” Walsh, HELOC originations, Joe Mellman, Freddie Mac, Mellman Organizations: DC CNN, Louis Federal Reserve, Equity Lines of, Mortgage, Association, TransUnion, , refinances Locations: Washington, originations, U.S
Unemployment for truck drivers could move higher as larger carriers, like Yellow, feel more pain. The freight recession may also signal a "detox" from the artificial demand spikes and gross margins seen in the pandemic. Retail demand for trucking, too, trended downward in July after a brief uptick early in the month. "This further supports the idea that the freight recession will remain through the rest of 2023." To be sure, much of the freight recession may actually point to a reversion to pre-pandemic trends after years of elevated demand for e-commerce.
Organizations: Motive, Service, Louis Locations: Wall, Silicon, COVID
Many cities in Florida remain popular retirement destinations, but a Pennsylvania city ranks as the best place to spend your post-work years. A second Pennsylvania city, state capital Harrisburg, is No. It's clear Pennsylvania and Florida dominate the top spots on the list of best places to retire. Florida doesn't tax income and Pennsylvania doesn't tax retirement pensions and distributions from 401(k)s, IRAs or Social Security, according to Kiplinger. Here are the top 10 U.S. cities for retirees, according to U.S. News & World Report:Lancaster, Pennsylvania Harrisburg, Pennsylvania Pensacola, Florida Tampa, Florida York, Pennsylvania Naples, Florida Daytona Beach, Florida Ann Arbor, Michigan Allentown, Pennsylvania Reading, PennsylvaniaWhile lists like these can be helpful while researching potential retirement locations, remember that everyone's ideal retirement is unique and shaped by different priorities.
Persons: Lancaster, Warren Buffett Organizations: U.S . News, U.S ., . News, U.S . Census, Tax Foundation, Louis Federal Reserve Bank, Pensacola, Security, Kiplinger Locations: Florida, Pennsylvania, Lancaster , Pennsylvania, U.S, Puerto Rico, Lancaster, Harrisburg, Lancaster , Pennsylvania Harrisburg , Pennsylvania Pensacola, Florida Tampa , Florida York, Pennsylvania Naples, Beach , Florida Ann Arbor , Michigan Allentown , Pennsylvania Reading
He said in the statement released by the St. Louis Fed that the regional bank "is well-positioned for ongoing success and impact." The St. Louis Fed said Kathleen O'Neill Paese, the regional bank's first vice president and chief operating officer, will act as interim president. The regional bank said its search committee will look nationally for a new leader, noting that its search will be "robust, transparent, fair and inclusive." While they operate under the oversight of the Board of Governors in Washington, regional Fed banks are quasi-private institutions technically owned by member banks. With Bullard's exit, there will be two unfilled regional Fed bank slots.
Persons: James Bullard, Bullard, Louis Fed, Mitchell, Daniels, Jr, doesn't, Tim Duy, Duy, Derek Tang, LH Meyers, Wrightson ICAP, Kathleen Bostjancic, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, Louis Fed's, Esther George, Michael S, Ann Saphir, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: Louis Federal Reserve, U.S, Purdue, St, School of Business, Federal, Macro, Fed, Purdue University, Minneapolis Fed, Nationwide, Brookings Institution, Governors, Kansas City Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: Indiana, St, Washington
New York CNN —St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard announced Thursday he is stepping down from his position in mid-August. “It has been both a privilege and an honor to be part of the St. Louis Fed for the last 33 years, including serving as its president for the last 15 years,” Bullard said in a statement released Thursday afternoon. With the exception of the president of New York Fed, four regional bank presidents from the remaining 11 branches serve one-year terms on the Federal Open Market Committee on a rotating basis. Kathleen O’Neill Paese, the St. Louis Fed’s first vice president and chief operating officer, was confirmed Thursday by the bank’s board and assumed Bullard’s duties “immediately” in the interim, according to the statement. The St. Louis Fed said it is hiring “a national executive search firm” to help identify Bullard’s permanent successor.
Persons: James Bullard, Louis Fed, ” Bullard, Bullard, Purdue University’s Mitchell E, Daniels, Jr, Jerome Powell, won’t, Kathleen O’Neill Paese, Louis Fed’s, , Bullard’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Louis Federal Reserve, Purdue, School of Business, Fed, New York Fed, Federal, Seven, Governor Locations: New York, St
James Bullard, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, delivers a speech in London, U.K., on Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2019. The St. Louis Federal Reserve announced Thursday that Jim Bullard will step down from his post as president, effective Aug. 14. "It has been both a privilege and an honor to be part of the St. Louis Fed for the last 33 years, including serving as its president for the last 15 years," Bullard said in a statement. "I am also grateful to have worked alongside such dedicated and inspiring colleagues across the Federal Reserve System." The St. Louis Fed said it will hire a "national executive search firm" to assist in seeking Bullard's successor.
Persons: James Bullard, Louis, Jim Bullard, Purdue University's Mitchell E, Daniels, Jr, Bullard, Louis Fed Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis Federal Reserve, Purdue, School of Business, Federal Reserve's, Market, Federal Reserve Locations: London, The St
New York CNN —Despite promising signs that inflation is abating, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said the fight against price increases isn’t over. But she cautioned, “It’s really too early to declare victory on inflation.”The latest Consumer Price Index report published on Wednesday showed that annual inflation slowed from 4% to 3% in June, the lowest level since March 2021. However, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, showed that inflation was double its 2% target in May. Daly acknowledged there’s a risk the Fed will raise rates higher than what’s ultimately needed to get inflation down to 2%. Daly, who will be voting on interest rates at the Fed’s meetings next year, said she wouldn’t necessarily consider cutting rates once inflation hits 2%.
Persons: Mary Daly, ” Daly, “ It’s, Daly, there’s, “ can’t, , Daly’s, James Bullard Organizations: New, New York CNN, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, CNBC, Louis Federal Reserve Bank Locations: New York, San, St
The Black unemployment rate rose to 6.0% last month, the highest since last August, from 5.6% in May, even as the overall jobless rate ticked down a notch to 3.6%. In fact, the majority of the 239,000 person decrease in Black employment came from the people who left the labor force altogether in June, according to the report. The exact cause of the recent weakening in Black employment is not yet clear. Reuters GraphicsNonetheless, a spike in the Black unemployment rate can be a strong predictor of an impending recession, since Black workers have historically been the first to be fired during an economic downturn. Su also said the rise in Black unemployment and the decline in participation is something the Biden administration would "continue to track."
Persons: William M, Rodgers III, Louis, Rodgers, it's, Rakeen Mabud, Julie Su, Su, Biden, Safiyah Riddle, Chizu Nomiyama, Dan Burns Organizations: U.S, Labor, Labor Department, Blacks, Reuters, Louis Federal Reserve's Institute of Economic Equity, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S
Morning Bid: The UK consumer is feeling the heat
  + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya RanganathanIt's not just the heatwave. UK consumers are paying through their noses for fish and chips too, and Friday brings the next quarterly survey of their views on inflation and rates. As Britain contends with one of the highest inflation rates among major advanced economies, the BOE seems set to hike rates a lot more. The stock has soared 17% this year, but pared some gains as grocers across Europe cap some prices. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Bullard speaks in Oslo, NorwayEarnings/updates: Tesco (TSCO.L)Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Vidya Ranganathan It's, BOE, Bullard, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Tesco, Asda, June University of Michigan, Louis Federal Reserve Bank, Thomson Locations: Vidya, gilts, Europe, Brussels, Italy, Oslo, Norway
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed Pres. Bullard: 'Data does not yet show a June pause is appropriate'CNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'Halftime' with breaking news from St. Louis Federal Reserve President Jim Bullard about the likelihood of another June rate hike.
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